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    • CommentAuthorSnooker
    • CommentTimeMar 16th 2008
     
    Hi. I've been using Auctioneer and lurking these forums for a long time. This is my first post. ^^

    It seems that everyone thinks LPS prices will crash to somewhere between 10-20g due to the new void shatter recipe in 2.4. My speculation is a bit different, however. Considering the huge influx of new gears after 2.4, I doubt that the supply of LPS from breaking down void crystals would be large enough to lower the prices of LPS, at least in maybe 2 to 3 weeks after the patch goes live. The recipe has two major restrictions, one is the requirement of having an enchanting level of 360 and the other is the 24-hour cooldown. I predict there would be a rise in LPS prices and it would take quite some time before they finally drop.

    The LPS prices on my server are about 23-25g each now and I have stockpiled a large amount of those, contrary to what most other people are doing.

    Any thoughts?
    • CommentAuthormickedog
    • CommentTimeMar 16th 2008
     
    Alot of people are going to need new enchants. I'd say a day before the weekend after the patch would be a good time to let a few loose to make a good profit. Im thinking of doing the same with Khorium bars. I have alot of them just sitting there. I'm hoping that the demand will be much greater than the supply later on when people get the new recipes and such.

    I'm also wondering how much primal nethers are going to sell for. Being a boe after the patch, I just dont have any idea wether to sell my nethers now by crafting or the surefoot enchant or hold on to them to sell to the peps who need them for the new craftable gear.
    • CommentAuthorasser
    • CommentTimeMar 16th 2008
     
    Hi,

    long time lurker first time poster here as well. A couple things to have in mind; first the Void Shatter formula requires Honored reputation with Shattered Sun Offensive, which means you won't have a huge influx of new LPS from day one (though getting to honored by running Magister's Terrace is reportedly easy). Secondly the new badge of justice vendor doesn't spawn until completion of phase 2 of the Isle rebuilding, which could take at least a week (US PvE PTR took 2 days to complete phase 1). Coupled with the fact that arena S4 doesn't start right away either (could be at least a couple weeks after release) nobody will actually need LPS from day one, so the price shouldn't jump at all right away.

    When the new badge vendor spawns the price should rise from all the new gear everybody is saving badges for right now - I think this will be countered a bit by the void shatter that a fair few people should have gotten by that time, but as you say with the 24h cooldown it probably can't make a huge difference. My strategy is to watch the progress closely and take advantage of the demand spike we should see when the vendor spawns.
    • CommentAuthorhotshift
    • CommentTimeMar 19th 2008
     
    Posted By: Snooker
    The LPS prices on my server are about 23-25g each now and I have stockpiled a large amount of those, contrary to what most other people are doing.

    Any thoughts?


    So, why not as well speculate on voids?
    LPS remain at 30g on my serveur
    Voids cristals dropped from 25g to 15g now.
    Correct me if i dream, but i thought one void at 20g (average) gets me for LPS at 10g each.
    Nett profit = 20g per LPS !!

    Now if voids price change, i do not care, i cannot buy more than the 100 i've stockpile.
    And ONLY if LPS price drops to less than 10g will i have losses.
    • CommentAuthorSnooker
    • CommentTimeMar 24th 2008
     
    Void shatter has a 24h cooldown and a 360 enchanting level requirement. It will take 1 or maybe 2 months for an enchanter to shatter all his void crystals. And If you're not an enchanter yourself, or you just happen to have an alt with enchanting leveled to 275 for disenchanting, your voids are probably going to sit in the bank for 2 more months.
    • CommentAuthorasser
    • CommentTimeMar 24th 2008
     
    Regarding the 360 requirement; somebody pointed out on EU forums (I think) that to actually do the void shatter you need a Runed Eternium Rod which in turn takes skill 375 to make :)

    I'm going to try to have some Eternium Rods on AH as well, many people probably didn't bother to make theirs yet as it isn't required for any but the raid enchants. Maybe this will even affect the price on Primal Might for a short while?
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeMar 25th 2008
     
    Heh, yeah, I don't have mine.
    I was looking at it just the other day wondering if I'd need to get one at all!
    • CommentAuthorNine
    • CommentTimeMar 25th 2008
     
    I don't think it will drop much more than it has already. 1 extra, per day, per enchanter who can do it, is online and gets around to it. Then there is all the new gear needing enchants.
  1.  
    I have stacks of Large Prismatic Shards. The selling price has gone down to around 20g each about a week ago when I've been selling them for just under 25g each. I do sell a few here and there but not as much as I used to. Also, Greater Eternal Essences have dropped in price from around 11g to 9g. Those two were where I made a lot of my profit recently.

    Also remember that Small Prismatic Shards can be combined to form on Large Prismatic Shard. Those are around 9g and I've been buying them when I've seen them for around 5-7g. Nexus Crystals to change into Small Prismatic Shards have gone up in price, about double or more. Void Crystals I think are about double the price of Large Prismatic Shards. I'll have to keep an eye out and see how things go.

    I got Auctioneer a while ago but never really learned how to get good use of out it. I'll start reading the forums next maintenance day. ^^
  2.  
    I just logged in and saw that I sold quite a bit of my Large Prismatic Shards. One of my friends said that the price would go up for a while as people buy them to enchant their new gear, like what Nine said above. :)
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    Presuming netherweave cloth is purchased at 15s or less (which is how I acquire all of mine), I can craft Large Prismatic Shards (hereafter "LPS") for just under 18g. Presuming Soul Essence at 1g each, I can craft Void Crystals (hereafter "VC") for just under 15g.

    My data point toward 45g for VC until the vendor opens up, and 27g for LPS.
    50g and 25g after the vendor opens up.
    After the cooldown is removed (I'm guestimating 3-4 weeks. Short, like Nexus transformation) the prices will drop to 40g/20g.

    I'm "helping" the realization of this price by posting 200 VC at 50g and anothe 200LPS at 30g. I offer in /trade at the above rates.

    YMMV, of course.
    •  
      CommentAuthordinesh
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    haha, time for me to underprice you!
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    I must be missing some of the patterns you're using bunny because I can't get close to those results from those prices...
    • CommentAuthorNine
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008 edited
     
    For the shards you'd need the Arcanoweave Boots pattern. I use Braided Eternium Chain for those: 3x Primal Earth and 2x Eternium bar, plus the Adamantite Powder from 3 stacks of Adamantite.

    For the crystals, I'm guessing Soulcloth Shoulders, but 15g doesn't sound likely when it takes 8 Soul Essence per cloth, and you need 6 of em.
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    Yep, the soul essence really confuses me, given that bunny says he buys it at any price under 1g but the smallest number you need is 40 for the gloves, 48 for other things and most items disenchant into 1 or 2 voids which would mean it's between 20 and 40g each, not as low as 15g...
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    I use Arcanoweave Bracers. Despite what wowecon claims, I can (and do in mass quantities) purchase arcane dust for less than 1g each (93s, average).

    I snatch Netherweave Cloth at 15s (the cloth->bandage vendor price), but my average buy price is 12s3c.

    12xArane Dust = 11.16g
    36xNetherweave Cloth = 4.33g
    2xRune Thread = 80s
    ===========
    1 LPS 16g29s08c
    5% to account for AH cut: 17g14s82c.
    • CommentAuthorNine
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008 edited
     
    Sounds about right, although prices for AD are higher on my server. It's still worth crafting and selling AD for me, once I have a nice pile of raw materials: green gems and cloth.

    I'm thinking in cost per click/craft these days: even a green JC item takes a while to craft. When you're crafting 50 of them (enough to fill your bags) that's enough time to bugger off and watch some TV. :)
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeMar 27th 2008
     
    Alas, my 375 tailor is only level 52, so no Arcanoweave for him... Grin.
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeMar 28th 2008
     
    Posted By: KinesiaYep, the soul essence really confuses me, given that bunny says he buys it at any price under 1g but the smallest number you need is 40 for the gloves, 48 for other things and most items disenchant into 1 or 2 voids which would mean it's between 20 and 40g each, not as low as 15g...


    items yielding 1.5 VCs

    40xSoul Essence=32g20s40c
    30xNetherweave Cloth=3g60s90c
    30xKnothide Leather Scraps=1g47s
    ======================
    37.28
    On average, the gloves DE to 1.5 VC.
    37.28/1.5=24.8553/0.95=26g16s

    Break even point is 27g, not the bragadacious 15g previously cited. =(

    I'm guessing I failed to calculate the correct number of soul essences, or errantly counted bank inventory as "free".
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeMar 28th 2008
     
    Ah, cool, it all makes sense now. Grin.
    I'm glad I wasn't going crazy.
    • CommentAuthorSnooker
    • CommentTimeMar 29th 2008
     
    A quick update:

    I've sold 31 LPS with a net profit of 302g two days after the patch went live on my Taiwan server now.
    Still 10 stacks to go......
    • CommentAuthorSnooker
    • CommentTimeMar 29th 2008
     
    Now my question is, should I hold on a bit to see if the prices will rocket to a new height when the vendor finally spawns. LoL.
    •  
      CommentAuthorDeckard
    • CommentTimeMar 29th 2008
     
    In cases where I'm unsure how the market is going to react, I usually take half of my inventory and sell it right away to lock in sales, then use the other half to sell in case the market moves in my favor. I never want to be left "holding the bag" so to speak with too much inventory I can't get rid of at a good price.

    This all depends on your comfort level and current bankroll of course, YMMV.
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeMar 30th 2008
     
    Posted By: DeckardIn cases where I'm unsure how the market is going to react, I usually take half of my inventory and sell it right away to lock in sales


    Excellent point. This is called portfolio diversification.

    One splits ones investments into different piles (I call them "pots"). Gold (cash) is one pot. Enchanting materials is another. Tradeskill leveling materials is yet another. So on and so forth.

    I can't recall where I came across it, but 12 is the magic number for minimaxing. More pots than twelve decreases risk, but at a vastly diminshed rate of return. Fewer pots increases the potential profitability, but at a vastly diminished confidence level. A portfolio of size one (say, having *all* of your assets tied up in Large Prismatic Shards) has a very high potential of profit (the price of LPS shoots up to 50g tomorrow due to a hotfix that gives you an epic mount for each LPS, for example) but has a rather low level of confidence (49%, best case. How likely is it that even if the price shoots up to 50g that FuFuFighter doesn't have 3 bajillion of them banked, ready to flood the market?)

    I try to stick to 20% liquid (assets as gold) but I've had to dip down to 10% with skittish people dumping their VC and LPS in the AH and how can I possibly pass up on those 20 stacks of VCs posted at 200g when I know I'll get at *least* 400g, probably closer to 900g for them?

    By the by, anyone want to buy 500x[Void Crystal]?
    • CommentAuthorhotshift
    • CommentTimeApr 8th 2008
     
    Update, now that most servers have open access to the VC splitting receipt.
    VC seems to go down in price (why ? too many resellers ?), while LPS price goes up. (demands in enchanting ?)
    All in all, it was a good idea to stockpile VC, and the benefit is greater than expected for me.
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeApr 23rd 2008
     
    Posted By: bunnyfufuPresuming netherweave cloth is purchased at 15s or less (which is how I acquire all of mine), I can craft Large Prismatic Shards (hereafter "LPS") for just under 18g. Presuming Soul Essence at 1g each, I can craft Void Crystals (hereafter "VC") for just under 15g.

    My data point toward 45g for VC until the vendor opens up, and 27g for LPS.
    50g and 25g after the vendor opens up.
    After the cooldown is removed (I'm guestimating 3-4 weeks. Short, like Nexus transformation) the prices will drop to 40g/20g.

    From http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/patchnotes/test-realm-patchnotes.html />
    Enchanting
    Removed the cooldown from Void Shatter.


    Although it is quite possible that I just got lucky (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) I did guess correctly. Here's my update:

    Average purchase price for Arcane Dust: 97s
    Average purchase price for Netherweave Cloth: 12s98c
    Average sale price for Large Prismatic Shard:
    Total Sold: 492 sold, 28g73s each
    Past Three Days: 52 sold, 31g28s each

    Which yields:
    12xArcane Dust= 11g64s
    36xNetherweave Cloth = 4g68s
    2xRune Thread = 80s
    ============
    1 LPS 17g12s


    I prefer to do my forecasting pessimistically. In this this case, the math is nicer. 27g-17g=10g

    10g profit each and every shard I make. I also sell via multiple alts who have not been cursed with the name Bunnyfufu. Said alts are listing the shards for higher amounts (and people buy from "them" so they don't buy from "me" even though it costs more!) Data from my other characters/account is not included here.

    Even though the void-shatter recipe is now available, price of LPS is stable at a level even higher than what I had forecast. My best guess is that this is due to the requirement of an Eternium Rod, not something many disenchanters (yes, even myself) bother to get. This leads me to believe that, until the cooldown is removed, price of LPS will be stable at your current average price, +/- 11.5%. (For Dalaran-Horde, 28g +/- 11.5% is 25g-31g, which is the price range I can reliably sell them at. 25g, they disappear immediately, 31g, they linger until they're the only ones left) Season 4 stuff will push this average price up 5.75% (although, to be fair, I have low confidence in the actual amount it will go up).
    • CommentAuthorbunnyfufu
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2008
     
    Anyone else have any input? Now that void shatter cooldown being removed (this Tuesday?), the price of LPS is starting to go down. 23g-29g for Dalaran-Horde.

    In the mean time, I've been buying a ton of Void Crystals at 30g. I have no idea what I'm going to do with the additional 500 LPS I'll have once the cooldown is removed. Eek!
    • CommentAuthorKinesia
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2008
     
    Since I couldn't do it myself (tailor too low level) I actually ended up selling cloth and arcane dust to people who were...
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